Short-term effects of Héðinsfjarðar-tunnel on population development in Fjallabyggð

Abstract

Many Western countries have experienced population growth outside the largest cities in recent decades. Population decline in Iceland has been largely confined to sparsely populated areas characterized by a lack of diverse employment opportunities and considerable distance from larger towns. Large-scale road infrastructure improvements have been proposed as a way to strengthen such communities and stem the tide of population decline. Smaller towns in Northern Iceland generally declined in the wake of the economic collapse of 2008. Early indications of the effects of the Héðinsfjörður tunnels between the towns of Ólafsfjörður and Siglufjörður suggest that while population decline in the former town is close to the average for similar towns, the decline of the latter town appears to have been halted. Furthermore, there are indications of unregistered population increase because of incomplete registrations.The number of young women and children under the age of five has increased since the tunnels were opened and the net migration rate has improved, in particular in Siglufjörður. These first results suggest that the Héðinsfjörður tunnels may deliver the anticipated positive effects on population development in Siglufjörður in particular but the long-term effects will become apparent in the coming years and decades.